Un virage important s’opère sur le marché immobilier — un marché où, jusqu’à tout récemment, les vendeurs avaient toutes les cartes en main.
A significant shift is underway in the real estate market — a sector where, until now, sellers held all the cards.
Ces changements ont commencé à se faire sentir le printemps dernier, mais ils se sont accentués depuis la fin de l’été — une période où le marché immobilier ralentit habituellement.
These changes began to be felt last spring, but they have intensified since the end of summer — a period when the real estate market typically slows down.
Dans le Grand Montréal, les ventes ont poursuivi leur recul en septembre, en baisse de 12 % par rapport au même mois l’an dernier. Il y a maintenant 20 % plus de propriétés à vendre qu’en septembre de l’année dernière!
Across Greater Montreal, sales continued to decline in September, falling by 12% compared to the same month last year. There is now 20% more inventory on the market than there was in September of last year!
L’époque où 30 à 40 % des propriétés se vendaient au terme de surenchères est révolue; les acheteurs ne repartent plus les mains vides.
The days when 30–40% of properties were sold via bidding wars are over; buyers are no longer left empty-handed.
Bref, sur l’île de Montréal, le marché bascule en faveur des acheteurs.
In short, the market on the Island of Montreal is shifting in favor of buyers.
Les facteurs à l’origine de cette baisse de la demande :
Factors driving this decline in demand:
- L’interdiction d’achat de propriétés résidentielles par les non-résidents du Canada (de 2023 à 2027).
- La hausse des taux hypothécaires depuis mars 2022.
- Un marché de l’emploi fragile et la crainte de perdre son emploi.
- A ban on real estate purchases by non-residents of Canada (from 2023 to 2027).
- Rising mortgage rates since March 2022.
- A fragile labor market, with concerns over potential job loss.
De plus, la tendance observée au cours des derniers mois devrait se maintenir jusqu’à l’été 2027. Voici ma prévision : je ne vois aucun indicateur laissant croire que le marché commencera à s’améliorer au cours des prochaines semaines.
Moreover, the trend observed in recent months is likely to continue until the summer of 2027. My forecast is this: I do not see a single indicator suggesting that the market will begin to improve in the coming weeks.
Je crois que la situation actuelle est très favorable aux acheteurs. Comme le dit l’adage : il faut acheter quand c’est bon marché et vendre quand c’est cher.
I believe that the current situation is highly favorable for buyers. As the saying goes, buy when it’s cheap, sell when it’s expensive.
Inutile d’attendre janvier — moment où prendra fin le moratoire sur l’achat de propriétés par les non-résidents au Canada — ni une éventuelle baisse des taux hypothécaires.
There is no need to wait until January — when the moratorium on real estate purchases by non-residents in Canada ends, or when mortgage interest rates potentially fall.
Pourquoi?
Why?
- Les acheteurs ont actuellement plus de choix et, surtout, plus de temps pour se décider.
- La possibilité de négocier le prix.
- Inutile d’attendre la baisse des taux hypothécaires! Avec un taux de 4 %, les versements d’un acheteur pour une propriété de 500 000 $ seraient les mêmes que pour une propriété de 550 000 $ à un taux de 3 %.
- Buyers currently have more options and, more importantly, more time to make their choice.
- The opportunity to negotiate the price.
- There is no need to wait for mortgage interest rates to drop! With a 4% mortgage rate, a buyer’s payments for a $500,000 home would be the same as they would be for a $550,000 home at a 3% interest rate.
N’oubliez pas que si les conditions du marché changent et que le nombre d’acheteurs augmente, les vendeurs seront en mesure de hausser leurs prix.
Keep in mind that if market conditions shift and the number of people looking to buy homes increases, sellers will be in a position to raise their prices.
De plus, vous pouvez actuellement profiter des programmes d’aide aux premiers acheteurs — des programmes qui pourraient être abolis à tout moment.
Furthermore, you can currently take advantage of assistance programs for first-time homebuyers — programs that could be discontinued at any moment.
2023 ended with a slight decline in sales and home prices in the Greater Montreal area. But the market should recover soon, perhaps at the same time as nature, at the end of winter, experts predict.
This is exactly what realtors observe in their practice. “They have a lot more calls, a lot more visits,” confirms Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage, Quebec region. He predicts a “hot” spring market. Which has nothing to do with temperature, he clarifies. Buyers are waiting for real reassurance about the Bank of Canada’s intentions and lower mortgage interest rates. “And even if the decline does not happen now,” adds Mr. St. Pierre, but at least in the near future. Once this is done, we should see a gradual return of life, especially among buyers who have put their projects on hold to wait for these more favorable conditions.
Those who were planning to buy a house this fall are probably keeping an eye on rising mortgage interest rates. And not only them. Those, who have already purchased property and are due to renew their mortgage this year, are also watching with bated breath what disputes flare up in the press over the growing banking interests. It is now becoming clear that housing prices will not rise soon, but will most likely fall, primarily for apartments (condominiums or condos for short), which are less popular than houses.
However, the market is still in favour of the sellers. Unfortunately, the choice of good houses in good areas of Montreal and on the South Shore (Longueuil, St-Hubert, St-Bruno, etc) remains poor. Detached houses no older than 30 years, are sold in Longueuil for more than $600000, in Montreal – $800000 and more.