Statistics

Real estate: nothing seems able to slow the surge in prices.

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Immobilier : rien ne semble capable de ralentir la flambée des prix

Real estate: nothing seems able to slow the surge in prices.

Despite a darkening economic climate, the Quebec real estate market demonstrated remarkable resilience in the third quarter.

Malgré un climat économique qui se détériore, le marché immobilier québécois a fait preuve d’une résilience remarquable au troisième trimestre.

A total of 22,690 properties changed owners between July and September 2025, an increase of 11% compared to last year and the highest level since 2020. The average home prices have decreased by 1,4% in British Columbia and by 1,6% in Ontario, but the average home prices have risen by 10% in Quebec.

Un total de 22 690 propriétés ont changé de propriétaires entre juillet et septembre 2025, soit une augmentation de 11 % par rapport à l’année précédente et le niveau le plus élevé depuis 2020. Les prix moyens des maisons ont diminué de 1,4 % en Colombie-Britannique et de 1,6 % en Ontario, mais les prix moyens des maisons ont augmenté de 10 % au Québec.

canada provinces price index

Quebecers seem doomed to pay more and more to become homeowners, with an average median increase of 9% over the past year on single-family homes.  This is revealed by the latest data from the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (APCIQ), which is based on information compiled by Centris between July and September 2025.

Les Québécois semblent condamnés à payer de plus en plus pour devenir propriétaires, avec une augmentation médiane moyenne de 9 % au cours de l’année écoulée pour les maisons unifamiliales. Cela est révélé par les dernières données de l’Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec (APCIQ), qui sont basées sur des informations compilées par Centris entre juillet et septembre 2025.

 
QC home prices
 

This price increase hardly surprises APCIQ economist Hélène Bégin. It results, she says, from the ‘combination of consistently strong demand from experienced buyers and a supply of properties significantly below the historical average. Moreover, the number of days required to sell a property has decreased by 20% compared to last year. It now takes an average of 44 days for a single-family home to find a buyer, which is 11 days less than during the same period in 2024.

Cette augmentation de prix ne surprend guère l’économiste de l’APCIQ, Hélène Bégin. Elle résulte, dit-elle, de la « combinaison d’une demande constamment forte de la part d’acheteurs expérimentés et d’une offre de propriétés nettement inférieure à la moyenne historique. De plus, le nombre de jours nécessaires pour vendre une propriété a diminué de 20 % par rapport à l’année dernière. Il faut désormais en moyenne 44 jours pour qu’une maison unifamiliale trouve un acheteur, soit 11 jours de moins que durant la même période en 2024.

Towards spring awakening

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Spring money growth2023 ended with a slight decline in sales and home prices in the Greater Montreal area. But the market should recover soon, perhaps at the same time as nature, at the end of winter, experts predict.

According to real estate firm Royal LePage, we saw some “passivity” from buyers in 2023 as the year saw widely reported increases in mortgage rates. And while there may seem to be an increase in the number of “For Sale” signs on city streets, supply remains “historically” low. In the Montreal region, the number of homes on the market is currently 47% lower than the average over the past decade. However, not everything is so gloomy and hopeless. In its report, Royal LePage noted that demand for property viewings is already growing. This certainly means that potential buyers are expecting better deals this year and are already in the home-hunting phase.

New house keys transferThis is exactly what realtors observe in their practice. “They have a lot more calls, a lot more visits,” confirms Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage, Quebec region. He predicts a “hot” spring market. Which has nothing to do with temperature, he clarifies. Buyers are waiting for real reassurance about the Bank of Canada’s intentions and lower mortgage interest rates. “And even if the decline does not happen now,” adds Mr. St. Pierre, but at least in the near future. Once this is done, we should see a gradual return of life, especially among buyers who have put their projects on hold to wait for these more favorable conditions.

The market recovery will not be as strong as in 2021, which was exceptional, but “the market should be very active again,” says Dominique St-Pierre, “like before the pandemic, when the real estate market in Montreal was very active.”

Home owners can be sure that their property continues to increase in value. Statistics for 2023 confirm the rise in residential property values both in Montreal and throughout Quebec. Average property prices are expected to rise another 5% in 2024.

If we observe the market over a longer period, we note a 30.6% increase in property values over the past four years in the Montreal region – from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023.

Forecast for growth in property prices in Montreal in 2022.

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In 2021, prices continued to rise both in Montreal and beyond in remote small towns. The issue of housing affordability has become critical in the Montreal region, especially for young families looking to buy their own home. Those who did not want to leave Montreal had to buy condos and 2-plexes to start at least somewhere and stop paying “someone else’s mortgage” for rental housing.

Selling for prices above the starting price is no longer surprising. As a result, more than 50% of real estate was sold for more than the initial price. Those who bought a house, condo or 2-plex 5 years ago are in a fortunate position and can afford to move on by selling their homes and buying the best.

But what about those who did not buy real estate 5 years ago and are desperately watching the rise in prices, realizing that they have to pay twice as much today? So, buy or wait?

Prices in Montreal are already near their highs, and most likely will not rise as much in 2022. The same cannot be said about the prices in the cities adjacent to it. If the average price for houses in Montreal increased by 23% in 2021, then in 2022 prices will continue to rise, but by no more than 1%, analysts say. The rise in condo prices in 2022 will also slow down and amount to 3%. My advice: if you can’t buy a home in Montreal itself, look at what you can count on in the surrounding area.

Canada in general, and Quebec in particular, due to its economic strength and financial stability, will continue to attract many immigrants. Quebec is currently the economic powerhouse of the country thanks to huge investments in its infrastructure and diversified economic structure. Therefore, in 2022, one should not expect a decline in property prices. In addition, many immigrants buy real estate in Montreal without a mortgage, so they will not be hindered by an increase in mortgage interest.

All analysts agree that there will be a large shortage of offered real estate for sale, which cannot but affect the rise in prices. The government is of course trying to slow down the rate of price growth. So, the Bank of Canada has already announced an increase in mortgage interest in 2022 in the hope of slowing down the rise in real estate prices and allowing native Canadians to buy their own homes.

Still have questions? Planning to sell or buy? Call +1-514-999-9260, ask me a question here on the site or write to my email

Sommes-nous dans une bulle immobilière à Montréal?

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Diminution des transactions immobilières

La demande est toujours aussi forte pour l’immobilier à Montréal. Conséquence, le prix de certaines catégories de propriétés ont augmenté d’environ 20%, selon l’Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec (APCIQ) Comparativement au mois de novembre 2020, le nombre de transactions résidentielles a chuté de 17%, rapporte la base de données provinciale Centris des courtiers immobiliers, sur laquelle se base l’ACPIQ pour élaborer son rapport. En tant que telles, les inscriptions sur le système de Centris pour les propriétés à vendre ont également connu une baisse en novembre 2021, avec une diminution de 20% comparativement à 2020.

gold coins and graph them

Des prix toujours en hausse

La hausse des prix médians des propriétés s’est poursuivie en novembre. En comparaison avec le mois de novembre dernier, cela représente une hausse de 21% pour les maisons unifamiliales, de 18% pour les copropriétés et de 15% pour les plex.

Sommes-nous dans une bulle immobilière à Montréal?

Historiquement, il y a eu peu de bulles immobilières au Canada. Est-ce qu’ici le ballon va continuer à se gonfler ou non ? Voici quelques pistes pour y voir plus clair.

UBS:

Basé en Suisse, UBS est la plus grande banque de gestion de fortune dans le monde. Dans son classement mondial des villes avec des bulles immobilières, Toronto est au 2e rang et Vancouver au 6e.

La SCHL/ Société canadienne, hypothèques et de logement :

Pour le deuxième trimestre, Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montréal, Moncton et Halifax présentaient des degrés de vulnérabilité élevés. Tous ces marchés avaient déjà un degré de vulnérabilité élevé au trimestre précédent, à l’exception de Montréal, où il était auparavant jugé modéré. Les prix des logements montréalais ont fortement augmenté et sont nettement supérieurs au niveau dicté par les facteurs fondamentaux comme le revenu du travail.

APCIQ/ Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec :

bulles

Il y a donc formation d’une bulle immobilière dans la grande région de Montréal, analyse Charles Brant. Cette bulle se caractérise, d’une part, du fait de l’incapacité de la majorité des premiers acheteurs à accéder à la propriété et d’autre part, la vulnérabilité des acheteurs expérimentés à un changement des conditions économiques dans la mesure où ces derniers sont de plus en plus endettés et dépendants de l’appréciation ou, au pire, au maintien de la valeur de leur(s) bien(s) immobilier(s). Nous croyons toutefois que cette situation est moins avancée que dans d’autres marchés canadiens dont la bulle est plus gonflée. Nous pensons que la hausse des taux d’intérêt sera salvatrice dans la mesure où elle parviendra à désamorcer la formation de cette bulle immobilière, évitant un revirement douloureux du marché, mais permettant plutôt la normalisation de ses conditions par certaines corrections de prix dans la région de Montréal et certaines agglomérations périphériques. À l’échelle du Québec, nous ne pouvons pas parler de bulle du marché de l’immobilier dans la mesure où plusieurs marchés connaissent un processus de rattrapage des prix ».

Montrealers leaving the island

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The majority of Montrealers who have left the city for the suburbs have been living on the outskirts of the city, according to a report released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In general, families living in areas bordering the island of Montreal, such as near the Honore-Mercier Bridge or in the Riviere-des-Prairies neighbourhood, are more likely to move to the surrounding suburbs. Those who live in the more central neighbourhoods tend to stay in the metropolis.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES REMAIN POPULAR

The percentage of Montrealers buying single-family homes has increased over the past six years. From 2015 to 2019, between 22 per cent and 24 per cent of them were already leaving the island to buy a bungalow in the suburbs. This proportion rose to 28.8 per cent in 2020. Interestingly, in July 2020, this percentage jumped to 31 per cent, the quarter after the pandemic began. The number of single-family home transactions rose in most municipalities off the Island of Montreal in that period. On the North Shore, the largest increases were observed in Saint-Eustache, Saint-Jerome, Saint-Lin des Laurentides, L’Assomption and Rosemere, and others. As for the South Shore, the municipalities of Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Longueuil (Vieux-Longueuil and St-Hubert sectors), Beloeil and Sainte-Julie welcomed several families who had previously lived in the metropolis. This wave of new households has probably created additional pressure on prices in a context of very limited supply.

Source : ctvnews.ca